The only bright spot in a gloomy holiday season in the United States beset with numerous worries for the consumer is that online retail sales are expected to be the only bright spot.
Surveys indicate online sales for the critical holiday season will grow some 15 to 20 percent, with a large portion occurring on so-called “Cyber Monday” on November 26 used by many to kick off the Internet shopping season, say media reports.
The research firm eMarketer predicts that online holiday sales will reach 31 billion dollars this season, up 18.5 percent over last year.
“It’s true that this year’s growth rate will be a drop-off from last year’s growth of 25 percent,” says Jeffrey Grau, an eMarketer analyst. “But it is far superior to the low single-digit growth rate forecast for the overall retail industry this holiday season.”
A separate survey by comScore forecasts November and December sales will reach 29.5 billion dollars in online consumer spending, a 20-percent increase from last year.
The research firm said online sales for the holiday, which start in early November, are running 17 percent ahead of last year’s pace based on data through November 18.
“The online holiday shopping season got off to a slow start in the first week of November, but it has since picked up sharply,” said comScore chairman Gian Fulgoni.
“Sales in the first 10 days of November were up modestly versus year ago, but surged to levels in excess of 20 percent by mid-November. It’s likely that warmer than average weather at the beginning of November kept people outdoors and away from their computers, weighing down early holiday season sales, especially for key online categories like apparel.”
Forrester Research is expecting US online retail sales this holiday season to reach $33 billion, a 21 percent increase over last year. But Forrester’s survey says many shoppers are hooked on free shipping offers and few are willing to pay for “frills” like gift wrap or overnight delivery.
Forrester says Europeans will outspend Americans online at 51 billion euros ($75 billion) for the holidays amid increased confidence in the Internet.
“Though more than half of US homes have high-speed access, many Americans feel the best place to shop for online gifts is not at the mall, but at the office,” says the National Retail Federation, whose survey showed 54.5 percent of office workers with Internet access will shop for holiday gifts from work this year.
The retail federation says 72 percent of online retailers will feature special promotions for Cyber Monday this year that may include big discounts or free shipping.
“As more people rely on the Internet for holiday shopping, retailers have stepped up their game to compete,” said Scott Silverman of Shop.org, the retail federation’s e-commerce arm.
“This year, promotions on Cyber Monday are extremely competitive as online retailers use an assortment of one-day specials to send shoppers online.”
For consumers confused about where to find bargains, the federation has created a website Cybermonday.com, directing buyers to deals for the day.
