China is set to overtake the US for the first time as the largest grocery market in the world by 2014. IGD forecasts that the Chinese grocery market will be worth €761 billion, outstripping the US, which is set to be worth €745 billion in four years’ time.
Reasons for this include:
•The US was more significantly affected by the recession than China.
•IMF predicts that the Chinese market could grow nearly three times faster than the US over the next four years
•Investment and consumer spend has increased in China and private sector demand has been driven by the Government’s stimulus package
Between 2010 and 2014 China’s population growth rate is expected to be double that of the US. Findings come from IGD’s latest report 10 for 2010 that includes predictions of the top ten grocery markets by value in 2014.
Other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) markets are set to grow in size with India becoming the third largest food and grocery market in four years’ time, while Russia and Brazil rank fifth and sixth respectively. IGD also predicts that Indonesia will enter the top ten list for the first time.
Joanne Denney-Finch, chief executive, IGD comments: “Chinese population growth and economic prosperity are contributing to the rise of China as an important grocery market on the world stage. The US and key European markets still offer an important source of growth for food and grocery businesses, but it is becoming harder to ignore the BRIC countries.
“Many retailers and manufacturers are already leading the way, building a strong presence in China and other emerging markets. Those who have not yet invested in these markets should start planning ahead now because the pace of growth for emerging markets will continue to outstrip that of the developed world.”
| Top Ten Grocery Markets by value | |||||||
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| Rank | Country | € | Rank | Country | € | ||
| 1 | US | 638 | 1 | China | 761 | ||
| 2 | China | 529 | 2 | US | 745 | ||
| 3 | Japan | 345 | 3 | India | 448 | ||
| 4 | India | 279 | 4 | Japan | 360 | ||
| 5 | France | 205 | 5 | Russia | 322 | ||
| 6 | Russia | 186 | 6 | Brazil | 284 | ||
| 7 | Brazil | 185 | 7 | France | 228 | ||
| 8 | UK | 170 | 8 | UK | 198 | ||
| 9 | Germany | 160 | 9 | Germany | 168 | ||
| 10 | Italy | 130 | 10 | Indonesia | 167 | ||
* 2014 is calculated using fixed exchange rates based on the average rates of 2009 from www.oanda.com
Notes:
•The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook published in Oct 2009 forecasted a Real GDP Growth CAGR growth for the USA of 4.07% vs. China of 11.44% from 2009-2014. China could therefore be growing nearly three times faster than the USA
•Population according to 2008 UN Rev. will con
